One of the main outcomes expected from Belém is a set of indicators that would help countries track progress on climate adaptation. But African and Arab countries say otherwise – and are seeking a two-year postponement of this decision until 2027, as shown in a new draft text.
Richard Muyungi, chair of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), told Climate Home News that the lack of international finance on offer from developed nations is one of the key reasons, as the current proposals would also count finance coming from domestic budgets to build resilience.
The AGN wants the indicators to be shaped by government negotiators over the next two years so they are more realistic, fair and reflective of national abilities to plan and pay for adaptation. This resistance to what was expected to be a relatively straightforward area of work may deter Brazil’s plan to have COP30 be the “COP of adaptation”, as outlined in a COP presidency letter.
Teresa Anderson, global lead on climate justice for ActionAid International, said African countries have good reason not to rush to a decision. “There is still no certainty that there will be money available to implement the adaptation tasks they are setting themselves,” she said.
Fossil fuel transition roadmap gains traction
The first-day call by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to start plotting a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels has led to several countries rallying behind the idea, with ministers from Brazil, the UK and Germany launching a call to move the idea forward in Belém.
The initiative has received support from Denmark, Colombia, Kenya, France and the Marshall Islands, as well as from the Environmental Integrity Group, composed of six nations among them Mexico, Korea and Switzerland.
Brazilian environment minister Marina Silva, who has led the front on a roadmap, told an event at COP30 that “we need a compass to guide us away from our dependency on fossil fuels”. Observers say the challenge now is gathering numbers, but there is appetite for it to be included in the final COP package, despite it not being on the official agenda. Get the full story here.
Addressing fossil fuels is increasingly critical, given that the latest round of climate plans has made little difference to projected warming, according to a new analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT). Same as last year, they calculate the planet is on track for 2.6C of warming by the end of the century, which is still better than the forecast from a decade ago of 3.6C.
COP30 in Belem must secure Africa’s future and that of humanity
Africa will not be defined by what it lacks, but by the solutions it provides.
The continent will not wait for others to act. It will push forward its climate agenda with ambition, urgency, coherence and resolve—while demanding that others meet their respective duties and obligations under international climate agreements.
This was the resounding message from two consequential climate conclaves held under the banner of the Africa Climate Summit in recent years: the first hosted by Kenya in 2023, and the second by Ethiopia in September 2025.
It is also Africa’s message to the upcoming UN global conference on climate change in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025—a message of Africa’s determination to be a climate solutions provider and investment destination, and to boldly claim its rightful place in the global climate economy.
The continent has resolved to build modern, green, and inclusive industrial economies by harnessing its vast natural resource endowment and fostering international partnerships and solidarity to secure jobs, opportunity and dignity for its people.
Africa is charging ahead on this journey with steadfast leadership and focus. The continent is one of the most ambitious and devoted actors in the Paris Climate Agreement. All African countries have signed the Agreement, and Africa has some of the boldest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) or national climate policies and strategies.
Ethiopia, for example, became the first country in the world to ban imports of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2023. Its Green Legacy Initiative on reforestation and climate resilience, launched in 2019, has now planted over 40 billion trees. The country had already a robust Climate Resilient and Green Economy Strategy well before the Paris Climate Agreement was established in 2015.
Meanwhile, neighbouring Kenya—despite accounting for only 0.16% of global GHG emissions—has an ambitious third-generation NDC (NDC 3.0) that seeks to reduce emissions by 35% and build a resilient green economy by 2035. The country already generates 90% of its electricity from renewable energy sources and has committed to reaching 100% by 2035 through its NDC 3.0.
Across Africa, many efforts like these abound. They include large-scale renewable energy projects; extensive forest landscape restoration initiatives; locally-led adaptation efforts; and innovative climate finance approaches.
Over the last decade, for example, several African governments, corporations and development finance institutions have piloted a range of green finance instruments, including green bonds, blue bonds and debt-for-climate and debt-for-nature swaps. By 2023, more than two dozen green bonds had been issued in Africa, including in Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Seychelles, Tanzania, Rwanda, Gabon, Mozambique, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia and Zambia.
For Africa, climate action, growth and development are not separate—they are mutually reinforcing and must be advanced together. Facing some of the most severe impacts of climate change, and despite contributing less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa understands better than most that in a world increasingly shaped by climate and environmental shocks, resilience is not a choice, and climate action can wait no longer.
Climate change amplifies pre-existing social, economic and political challenges, which in turn constrain the ability of states and communities to mitigate or adapt.
Investing in climate action is therefore a precondition for sustained economic progress.
Delaying action will only magnify the costs of inaction, including much steeper social and economic costs in the future.
This is not theoretical. On average, climate change already costs Africa up to 5% of GDP annually, with more vulnerable countries forced to divert up to 9% of national budgets to manage climate-induced damages. These are losses not only of wealth, but of stability, sovereignty and future opportunity.
Africa understands that resilience can transform vulnerability into viability. Investment in adaptation and resilience delivers consistently high returns, with every dollar yielding an estimated US$10–14 in avoided losses and broader economic and social benefits.
Beyond mitigating loss, resilience also protects natural capital, safeguards supply chains and stabilizes economies. Ambitious and timely climate action by every country is not just vital to meeting global climate goals—it is foundational to inclusive global development, resilience and long-term prosperity.
In the fight against climate change, Africa does not lack ambition, clarity of purpose, leadership or innovation. What Africa lacks is commensurate leadership, partnership and solidarity on the part of advanced economies. This structural imbalance handicaps the continent’s fight against climate change – and it must change.
To illustrate with one example: climate finance remains the single most important constraint to the successful delivery of Africa’s bold vision for climate-positive development. The continent faces a US$160 billion adaptation finance gap annually.
The continent needs the industrialized countries to deliver on their climate finance commitments under the Paris Agreement, where such finance is an obligation, not charity. And aptly so, as mentioned earlier, investing in climate action is not just necessary to achieve climate objectives but is also key to sustaining economic progress.